About timing for a decision
Yes, I think there's a window. Gas leasing will come to and end sometime, but nobody knows when. We can't know when. Gas lease bonuses in the Haynesville Shale in Louisiana reached $27,000 an acre before they stopped (although many of the bonus payments at that rate were defaulted on because they came so close to the end of the leasing frenzy). So, speculating on how high the bonuses will get is worse than betting on the stock market.
Speculating on royalties is even more absurd. If we decide to lease under the terms I'm describing, the question is: How much bonus is enough bonus.
If we decide to present a counter offer I would like to do so before Thanksgiving, as a target date. That does not mean that we sign a lease by then. NO! That means we inform them of our intentions to lease and begin negotiations about the myriad stipulations of the lease.
I cannot even begin to understand why we would be offered this kind of bonus money on land the surface of which they can't disturb until I look at how much money is coming out of these wells.
A single well in Dimock PA (Susquehanna county) is currently producing gas at almost $100,000 per day revenue at the wellhead. That well pad is permitted for 5 more wells.
The gas in this type of well does not migrate from one well to the next. You can drill three horizontal boreholes along side eachother 1,000 feet away from each other through the shale layer, pump one at a time 6 times in series, or all 6 at a time in parallel - you get the same amout of gas.
The gas from one does not migrate to the wellhole of the one next to it. They are slated to last 20 years or more each. Taking into account that the pressure declines over time, a single well on that pad could yield $360,000,000 of gas over the lifetime of the well. There are permitted for 6 of them on that pad. That pad drains gas from only 1 square mile of Susquehanna County.
I think speculating to maximize your bonus payment is a really bad idea. Please ask yourselves how much is enough, and be serious about the answer.
To me, inconceivable as it is that we would receive it, $5,000 an acre is exactly what I want - after tax investment at 2% produces enough interest money to keep the place going in perpetuity. But I'll settle for $3,500 and acre (what's been offered). Any more than $5,000 (or $5,750) an acre just loads us with more money - it doesn't materially add to keeping the place going in perpetuity.
But, be aware that the leasing bonus price per acre could escalate or it could evaporate. You will not know until it has already happened.
See Follow-up for more detail.